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Random House
October 2009
On Sale: September 29, 2009
272 pages
ISBN: 1400067871
EAN: 9781400067879
Hardcover
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Non-Fiction
Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is a master of game theory, which is
a fancy label for a simple idea: People compete, and they
always do what they think is in their own best interest.
Bueno de Mesquita uses game theory and its insights into
human behavior to predict and even engineer political,
financial, and personal events. His forecasts, which have
been employed by everyone from the CIA to major business
firms, have an amazing 90 percent accuracy rate, and in this
dazzling and revelatory book he shares his startling methods
and lets you play along in a range of high-stakes
negotiations and conflicts.Revealing the origins of game
theory and the advances made by John Nash, the Nobel
Prize-winning scientist perhaps best known from A Beautiful
Mind, Bueno de Mesquita details the controversial and
cold-eyed system of calculation that he has since created,
one that allows individuals to think strategically about
what their opponents want, how much they want it, and how
they might react to every move. From there, Bueno de
Mesquita games such events as the North Korean disarmament
talks and the Middle East peace process and recalls, among
other cases, how he correctly predicted which corporate
clients of the Arthur Andersen accounting firm were most
likely engaged in fraudulent activity (hint: one of them
started with an E). And looking as ever to the future, Bueno
de Mesquita also demonstrates how game theory can provide
successful strategies to combat both global warming (instead
of relying on empty regulations, make nations compete in
technology) and terror (figure out exactly how much U.S. aid
will make Pakistan fight the Taliban).But as Bueno de
Mesquita shows, game theory isn-t just for saving the world.
It can help you in your own life, whether you want to
succeed in a lawsuit (lawyers argue too much the merits of
the case and question too little the motives of their
opponents), elect the CEO of your company (change the system
of voting on your board to be more advantageous to your
candidate), or even buy a car (start by knowing exactly what
you want, call every dealer in a fifty-mile radius, and
negotiate only over the phone).Savvy, provocative, and
shockingly effective, The Predictioneer-s Game will change
how you understand the world and manage your future. Life-s
a game, and how you play is whether you win or lose.From the
Hardcover edition.
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