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Oxford University Press
December 2006
On Sale: November 30, 2006
272 pages ISBN: 0195181158 EAN: 9780195181159 Hardcover
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Non-Fiction
Many theories--from the routine to the bizarre--have been
offered up to explain the crime decline of the 1990s. Was it
record levels of imprisonment? An abatement of the crack
cocaine epidemic? More police using better tactics? Or even
the effects of legalized abortion? And what can we expect
from crime rates in the future? Franklin E. Zimring here
takes on the experts, and counters with the first in-depth
portrait of the decline and its true significance. The major
lesson from the 1990s is that relatively superficial changes
in the character of urban life can be associated with up to
75% drops in the crime rate. Crime can drop even if there is
no major change in the population, the economy or the
schools. Offering the most reliable data available, Zimring
documents the decline as the longest and largest since World
War II. It ranged across both violent and non-violent
offences, all regions, and every demographic. All Americans,
whether they live in cities or suburbs, whether rich or
poor, are safer today. Casting a critical and unerring eye
on current explanations, this book demonstrates that both
long-standing theories of crime prevention and recently
generated theories fall far short of explaining the 1990s
drop. A careful study of Canadian crime trends reveals that
imprisonment and economic factors may not have played the
role in the U.S. crime drop that many have suggested. There
was no magic bullet but instead a combination of factors
working in concert rather than a single cause that produced
the decline. Further--and happily for future progress, it is
clear that declines in the crime rate do not require
fundamental social or structural changes. Smaller shifts in
policy can make large differences. The significant
reductions in crime rates, especially in New York, where
crime dropped twice the national average, suggests that
there is room for other cities to repeat this astounding
success. In this definitive look at the great American crime
decline, Franklin E. Zimring finds no pat answers but
evidence that even lower crime rates might be in store.
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